CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-11-04T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-04T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34402/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is visible in SOHO LASCO C3 after a data gap from 2024-11-04T02:18Z to 2024-11-04T05:43Z. The CME is associated with an M3.8 flare from AR 3883 (approximately S04E42) peaking at 2024-11-04T01:40Z. The eruption can be seen in all wavelengths of SDO AIA imagery, with brightening best seen in SDO AIA 131, dimming and EUV wave best seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-06T20:25Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 37.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.8 - 5.6
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 5.85 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-11-06T14:34Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement